THE RACE FOR DOLLAR BILL's CONGRESSIONAL SEAT

Those of who don't like Dollar Bill Jefferson are *cautiously* optimistic that he won't get his sorry ass re-elected. BUT the old bastard has confounded his critics many time so I'm not counting him out. In 2006, Dollar Bill appeared to be on the ropes but managed to ooze his way back to Congress. Things are worse for him this time around because, as of last reckoning, he has a mere $42K in his campaign exchequer whereas in 2006, he had the cash to run a decent race. He's also been indicted as well as defrocked of his seniority.

The biggest advantage Jefferson has is that there are 444 candidates running against him. That's an exaggeration but not by much. The only interesting thing that's happened thus far was the ejection from the race of Orleans Parish Schoolboard member, Jimmy (Live Shot) Fahrenholtz for lying on his entry forms. Oops. 

The rest of the field are not terribly well known district wide except for former WDSU-TV morning anchor Helena Moreno. But Moreno has never run for office and is an unknown quantity politically. We do know that she can get up *really* early in the morning and read a teleprompter without stumbling a la Senator Walnuts or Lucy Bustamante. BUT she may look like a shiny new penny in contrast to the tarnished incumbent. Her inexperience makes her hard to handicap but if she performs well on the stump, she's got a shot. Plus, as a light skinned Latina, she's the closest thing to a white candidate in the Democratic field and race is *always* a factor in Debrisville.

New Orleans City Councilman James (Not Jimmy) Carter and former City Councilman Troy Carter share an Algiers base. Troy ran last time and finished fifth in the primary but came off as well versed in national issues unlike the rest of field who sounded as if they were running for local office. James has been a quiet and rather undistinguished councilmember  (as was Troy) but he's presentable and may be able to use the Council as a forum to grow his support. His biggest disability is that his shiny bald pate evokes C Ray instead of Michael Jordan. He should consider wearing a hat. Seriously, I think James Carter is likely to emerge as the leading candidate on the Orleans side of the West Bank. He needs to whap C Ray upside the head on more issues to demonstrate his appeal to white goo-go voters looking for a viable anti-Jefferson candidate.

State Representative Cedric Richmond certainly looks like a Congressman with his perfect posture and telegenic features. The biggest problem for Richmond is that in a multi-candidate field one's home turf is important  and his base is flood ravaged and underpopulated New Orleans East. One thing working in Richmond's favor is his willingness, nay eagerness, to pander to all and sundry.

Former Nagin lackey Kenya Smith has learned a thing or three about spin from C Ray BUT I'm not sure exactly what accomplishments he can credibly point to during his time at City Hall. Oh that's right, he knows how to use a credit card and wine and dine people. That counts for something. Smith looks like a long shot who is only likely to get the support of the 4 or 5 people who still like Nagin. Hey, at least C Ray isn't on the ballot. Can you imagine him taking his one man band act to Congress? He could have founded the bald, idiotic former Mayor caucus of one...

Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee is almost a surrogate for his coozan, indicted State Senator Derrick Shepherd. Like the Bad Shepherd, he's likely to be the JP "regional" candidate but he's unlikely to gain the support of as many key elected officials as his cuz. Harry Lee is dead and Princess BOLD isn't running so the JP strategic voting bloc thing should be less of a factor. Hey, maybe Byron can claim to be Harry's love child and get some votes that way. Stranger things have happened.

The field is large and unwieldy, which is to Dollar Bill's advantage. The 2006 election showed that he had a 30% threshold of support but I wonder if that will hold this time around. I can see him slipping to 20-25% but making the run-off unless another candidate catches on and captures the public imagination. My gut tells me that Moreno has a chance to do so BUT inexperienced candidates make mistakes so she's just as likely to flop as break out of the pack. As always, it shoud be interesting.

tags: nola  politics  congress  dollar  bill  jefferson  2008  election  

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