RUNOFF BLUES: DOLLAR BILL VERSUS PRINCESS BOLD

I think it depends on if his former challengers unit to endorse and work for Carter. They may well elect to keep quiet, sit it out and wait for the indictment, resignation and special election.

If they do that I might vote for Ray, just because the other lot was so spineless and because he can probbaly do less damage as one of 435 that as the only mayor.

Excellent point, Mominem. I think Shepherd will sit it out and covertly support Dollar Bill.

Have I ever told you I like the way you think? There is a lot to mull over here. For the sake of good theater I hope you're right. I wonder if we're not all guilty of writing this story before it happens. I'm still waiting to see my first throat-lunging ad in this runoff.. and they've already wasted two days!

I'm not sure if I'm honored or scared, Jeffrey. I expect that much of Dollar Bill's shite will be via flyer, radio ad and robo calls. He's not gonna go on tee-vee and call Princess BOLD a chick Uncle Tom (not sure of the proper female equivalent.) I also expect that he'll hint that she's a lesbian.

Auntie Tom? Also I think I may have already heard the lesbian whisper during the primary. Gotta tune those radios back to QUE for the next month I guess.

I think Aunt Jemima is what you're looking for.

I heard the other night that Carter was engaged to be married. I would never sell Dollar Bill short on strategy and cunning, but his vaunted political machine has been mostly broken of late. He may yet rally, but he has that defeated and worn look in his eyes and in his demeanor.

What's turnout going to be, 20%? I don't think that anything else (of importance) will be on the ballot. White westbankers who were already going to vote, might vote against Carter because of the bridge comments, but I doubt they'll go out to vote for Dollar Bill because because they're miffed at Carter. I suppose it's possible that a low turnout could make the vote of westbank cops pivotal, but I doubt it. With no other elections to distract voters, it will be difficult to play the race angle both ways. The GNOR would lose all credibility if they tried to help with the white vote, so Jefferson doesn't have that going for him. The way I see it, Carter should be careful not to overdo any apologies for her bridge comments. If Jefferson can't sell the Aunt Jemima image, he's lucky to split the black vote. Almost every white eastbanker votes against Jefferson, and they'll have a decent turnout. I just can't imagine that most white westbankers will be angry enough at Carter to go out and vote for Jefferson; I hope they're not that parochial. I don't think debates will be a big factor even though Carter's lousy at them. Unless somebody really blows it, debates usually only help with the undecided vote.

What I presented was a possible path to 50.1 by Dollar Bill. I don't think it's likely to happen in such a low turnout election BUT I wouldn't be surprised if Princess BOLD made some substantial mistakes.

I still think the race issue can be played both ways. Nagin managed to do so quite well in a very high profile election. Plus, as Adrastos pointed out, the two demographics consume fragmented media through which it is possible to send two contradictory messages. Also never underestimate the "parochial" tendencies of a Louisiana electorate... particularly in this hyper-localized climate. I agree that it's a long shot but it is possible. Plus I'm a big fan of dystopian outcomes so it's a lot of fun to think about.

Bro...great analysis and ithink ur right on. This election is gonna be very. very close...and i'll go so far as to say BJ has the edge. I think a lot of black voters who didn't bother to vote last tuesday are gonna show up for this...question is how many. Also I wouldn't be surprised to see an inictment come down between now and election...the last the Letton wants is to see Jefferson back in power and running his siphoning machine on public money. Although I can assure you Carter will pick up where he left off.

I shouldn't have treated it like a prediction, but I don't see it happenning. Yes, there are different media at work in the black and white communities, so you can play both sides of the race issue. I just don't see it happenning. There's no GNOR to help with the racist white vote, and no Billboard Ben, Jesse Jackson and ACORN to bring in evacuees. Except for law enforcement personnel and their families, I don't see many westbankers voting for Jefferson because of Carter's comments. The anti-Jefferson white vote is much more committed than than the anti-Carter white vote. Of course I am often surprised by the size of that huge chip that so many westbankers carry on their group shoulder (I suppose I should reserve the inflammatory comments for my own blog). If Carter's smart, or has smart advisers, she'll make a very public peace overture toward Harry Lee and westbank leaders that makes it clear where the problem started. That would make it very hard for Jefferson to get a large turnout among blacks who think that whites are trying to steal the seat. Frankly, I don't even like to bring up the possibility--it seems presumptuous (or worse) for a white man to mention. But after the mayor'selection we have to consider every angle; I just don't see it. I think the largest turnout will be among anti-Jefferson voters. I thought from the beginning that Lavigne was the only candidate Jefferson could beat--I even said that Jefferson was probably more worried about Lavigne's poll numbers than his own. I suppose Carter could beat herself, but all a son or daughter of privelege needs is for good advisers to come up with the right script and then stick to it. Is that the first Karen Carter/George Bush comparison?

I suspect that the BOLD hierarchy will pull out all stops for KC, and that Oliver T., Jim S., Ken C., Doug E. and the others will "bridge the gap" with the disaffected West bank crowd. Any apologies will be private, and conciliatory messages will then emerge publicly. This is BOLD's best chance to be all that they can be, on a larger and far more lucrative stage, and I doubt that they will concede anything to the fading political machine of the Prog Dems. Couple that with the DNC treating Dollar Bill like he has leprosy, and KC will prevail at the end of the day.

If the DNC comes in and tries to defeat BJ, then he is toast.

I doubt that will happen. Racial solidarity is more important than picking sides between two marginal African-Americans. I doubt anyone local is going to help KC much, they all have agendas of their own, many would prefer to see BJ continue on, I think.

The Dems already have the House so this race doesn't matter and if BJ wins it gives the Dems in the House a reason not to support reconstruction, something many of them are looking to do, since they want the money for their own local interests.

Whatever happens Louisiana and New Orleans loses at the national level.

Mominem, I don't agree. House Dems have been much stronger supporters of aid to the Katrina zone than the Repubs. The loudest and dumbest voices against us have been Republican. Why? The slow federal response made Bush look bad. If Bush had looked like a hero post-K, the right wingers wouldn't have been so hostile to us. That hostility was all about the Bush cult, which is almost over. The spell has been broken...

We'll see.

I suspect at least part of the Dem response was anti-Repub. There are Dems who have been reluctant to vote for support. We have a lame duck session coming up lets see what happens.

I'm not completely clear on the difference between the Senate and House versions. My vague understanding is that the Senate version gave us less off shore money.

Will the new Senate give us more?

I freely admit I trust neither party and don't expect a dime to affect me personally.

I also expect the City of New Orleans to shrink by 100,000 people because people have either decided to move to surrounding parishes or move out of the CBSA.

shit...can't type on pda.

The House version of the oil revenue sharing bill is doomed because it opens up almost the entire coastline of the US for drilling; not because it's more generous. It's a terrible bill written by oil company lobbyists and not by Piyush.

Why should California and Florida share the revenue from our oil extraction if they are not willing to share the pain?

I'm sorry the fact that it won't pass don't make it right.

I was just down on Frenchman tonight (Sat.) and Billy Boy was strolling around with his goons shaking hands and making friends. Pretty funny stuff.

The national Democratic Party has a vested interest in seeing Jefferson lose. They just won major victories in large part because voters rejected GOP corruption. It would look very, very bad to have Jefferson returned to Congress in the middle of pushing a reform message to a national audience.

I think the Dems have a vested interesting in demonstrating they are the party that knows how to get shit done. There's is no ready solution for Iraq, so some major effort for the Gulf Coast is an obvious opportunity, and shame on our delegation if they don't recognize and leverage that.

Jefferson is a poster child for corruption, so the DNC and DCCC should see a reason to help him lose. Also, having Jefferson off the state will make it that much easier, on the same reasoning as levee board and assessor consolidation, to get a deal done for further Gulf Coast aid. There is an argument for the nationals to take sides, and strongly. I think I need to turn these last couple of paragraphs into an email to Landrieu and Melancon.

I don't know enough West Bankers anymore to have a good feel for how the anti-Jefferson vote shakes out against KC's comments on the bridge. I think that the people most inclined to vote against BJ are also liable to be less frantic about the entire brige incident than Lee and the Gretna police chief. It comes down to this: do you want to re-elect someone who personifies every bad vibe you've ever had about black elected officials in the last 10 years, or someone who lot their temper over something Katrina-related. Do you know anybody who hasn't lost their temper over something Katrina related?

I think it's KC's to lose, and by choosing to put it that way, I have to admit that its possible that she could.