CAUCUSMANIA

I think Edwards is going to win too, and that it's actually more important to him to win in Iowa than it would be to either Obama or Clinton (although coming in 3rd would be problematic for her). Didn't Howard Dean win Iowa last time?

Dean placed third behind Kerry and Edwards. I know because I was standing about six feet from him as he made the speech....

and it was so loud in there that i didn't even hear the "scream" bit until the next day on the news.

Thanks, Alli. I was remembering his celebration, thinking he *must* have won!

I've got Huck first for the same reason I have Edwards first. This is going to be a populist election whether the pundits want it that way or not. Not saying that those will be your nominees but they will be players for basically the same reason.

I would loooovvve to see Hillary finish 3rd in Iowa but it ain't gonna happen.

I also think the Obama-enthusiasts are too overconfident. I think they are placing too much Audacious Hope in the idea that we have turned some sort of magical corner regarding racism in this country.

We have not.... especially not in an overwhelmingly white and rural state like Iowa.

Of course... as usual, I could be wrong. I often am.

yep, you are wrong jeffrey. obama is going to be first by at least 5 points. the real fight is for second between edwards and clinton. if edwards finishes third, he is toast. if clinton finishes third she is seriously wounded. obama and edwards will get a lot of second choice caucus support. clinton will get very little, which is why she will finish third, with edwards eking her out by 1-3 points.

Jeffrey writes: "I also think the Obama-enthusiasts are too overconfident. I think they are placing too much Audacious Hope in the idea that we have turned some sort of magical corner regarding racism in this country."

And remember, that this isn't "anonymous voting". These white Iowans are caucusing; they are standing in front of their neighbors (while the country is at war) and affirming their support for Barrack Hussein Obama, a black man who they never heard of 5 years ago. In some cases these white supporters will be actively trying to persuade their neighbors-- often moderate or slightly conservative older folks-- away from a white male or female candidate who they've known longer, and towards Barrack Obama.

Think for a second what it takes for a candidate and a campaign to successfully do that, in political terms.

I am HOPEFUL that Obama edges Edwards, and Hill comes in third. Edwards doesn't have a real clue as to how he's going to beat Hillary in NH or on SuperPrimary day, so an Edwards/Hill/Obama finish is actually a strategic "victory" for Hillary.

Oh no! Not the "strategic" voting! Lord help us.

I realize I'm late but.....

Dems: Obama, Cllinton, Edwards

Repubs: Huckabee, McCain, Romney

And I'm NOT watching the news..................

Well, it is an odd ritual, especially that part where they beat each other with birch branches and then go roll naked in the snow. I don't see many people having Hillary as a second choice. The idea that people either love or hate Hillary is so damned true. I don't think anyone is neutral about here who will actually vote in an election. Edwards (disclainmer: I like him more this time, and made a small donation, although I called him am "empty suit" four years ago, a fact my wife won't let me forget) and Obama are both more likely to pick up second choice votes: all three of Dodd's voters in the state plus some economic liberals from Kucinich. The rest of the Kucinich's troopers go to Obama. I seriously think that Hillary could finish third. Begala and Serpent Head's best days are behind them, and Hillary is not Bill but carries his baggage.

Obama may have a plan for the Gulf Coast as Mark asserts, but Edwards has made it an issue. At this point in the game, that's more skin in the game for me. I should go over the YRHT and answer Marks there, but I'll say briefly that I don't think Edwards should waste too much time on Yankees. They are even less typical of America than caucusing Iowans. Instead he needs to high himself down to Carolina and make like a good, Southern populist.

What happens on Super Incredible Tuesday will depend for everyone who how they did in two of three of those races, and what they're money looks like. Oh, and not doing anything stupid along the way. (Yeeha!!!!) (Second disclaimer: I was a Dean man this time last year. Hell, I actually spent any number of weekends calling Iowans, something I have no interest in doing this time. I can hardly believe I'm sitting here writing about this, given my feelings about the Central Government. I think if it were to play out as Hillary all the way, I will probably find something better to do next November. In fact, I hope to be in Brugge drinking Belgian Ale.