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ATTENDING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
The problem with going to the Electoral College is that nobody's told me where the party is. Bummer, man. The map below reflects my sense of the election as of today. I realize that some will accuse me of being OTT optimistic but I actually restrained myself. It looks as if the Dems have a shot at carrying Georgia if white winger turnout is down and black turnout is sky high. I think that all the Southern states will be closer than usual because of record turnout in the African-American community.
I know that very few people are picking Obama to win West Virginia but recent polls there shows he's got a chance. Why? Whenever the economy is the main issue, Democrats have a good shot at recapturing this traditionally Democratic state. Hell, Carter carried it in 1980 and Dukakis in '88. That's right, Michael Stanley Dukakis. What the hell kind of middle name for a Greek is Stanley? It's probably the real reason he lost...
The map is, of course, what I think would happen if almost all of the dominoes fell in Obama's direction. I think the *maximum* number of electoral votes Obama could end up with is 404. (And while I think Walnuttiness will prevail in the Gret Stet, I think it's possible for Obama to win here if Conservatives leave McCain's box on the ballot unchecked. It *is* however a long shot.) I think his minimum EV total is 338, which is still a very substantial victory.
I'll update my map on the day before the election. I no longer see an EV path to victory for the Walnuts-Twinkie ticket. And what on earth have they been doing campaigning in New Mexico, Wisconsin and Minnesota, states that seem to hav moved soldly into the Obama camp. I'm glad they're doing it but I'm baffled. Of course, very little that the McCain camp does makes any sense. Hmm, maybe the McCainiacs are running the first Zen campaign. Zen koans supposedly make one's brain reel like a dead monkey and I'm feeling like one right now. Perhaps that's why I'm craving a Banana Daiquiri...
I'm inclined to agree, in theory. I think we're going to see a reverse
Bradley Effect, in which folks who would never openly admit to voting for
BO, will do so and lie about it even in exit polls. Call me Pollyanna
(everybody else does). 40% of the early voters here have been African
Americans. I don't care if it's big or little, so long as it takes and we
have, um, regime change. Maybe the Dukakises were hockey fans?
I agree about the reverse Bradley effect and almost mentioned it BUT I'm
saving it for a longer post I'm planning to write about the whole deal.
Btw, you might wanna use the candidates first or last name BO
is...uh...redolent of something else...